Friday, February 22, 2013

Into the Final Lap - My Prediction

The latest prediction is the GE will only be held on mid April and not end March as originally speculated. Whatever. For too many of use the extra 2 weeks wait ain't going to change our mind. A recent online survey by a reputable business magazine found that 85% of the respondents have already decided who to cast their votes for. Therefore both coalitions should be spending the next month wrapping up and persuading the indecisive to make up their mind.

In the past fortnight the BN government, especially the prime minister himself have committed grave boo boo that speaks volume about their desperation to win votes. Most of us Malaysians know of the way the PM cheapened himself and the office of the Prime Minister by asking for support to the Barisan government at the Psy Oppa Gangnam Style show in Penang on Chinese New Year. The first time he asked, the crowd roared NO. Stupidly or hard of hearing, he repeated the question. Again the response was reaffirmingly louder NO. And for the third time, thinking that he actually heard a yes, he roared, Are you ready for BN? The reply sealed the mood. It echoed back a definite NO. Suddenly the PM was lost for the right words to carry on. Struggling to regain his composure he meekly responded, 'So, let us work, let us wait, let us be together in the spirit of 1Malaysia'. I suppose he must have regretted politicizing an entertainment event.

The second round distribution of aid to families earning less than RM3,000 monthly recently was also viewed as a bribery. Even my taxi driver yesterday said plainly, he took it because it was his tax money and will not sell his vote for a measly RM500. Yet the PM hope to fish enough voters who are grateful for the cash to revote him to power. There will be simpletons who think this way but most of the educated voters have decided. And the PM even try to bait some marginal voters by suggesting the third round of aid may, yes may, be given AFTER the election is over and the BN wins AND if there is money to give.

2 days ago an announcement was made that a high speed train service between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore will be built by 2020 to enable travelers reach their destination in 90 minutes. Immediately the opposition coalition Pakatan counter-proposed an interstate high speed rail service instead to draw the people closer and reduce road traffic jams. Personally I find this more people centric and purposeful. I am not surprised if the high speed KL-Singapore service never take off.

Most people see a close fight with either Barisan or Pakatan snatching a narrow victory over the other. But many people expects more states to fall to Pakatan citing recapturing of Perak and victory in Perlis and N.Sembilan as strong likelihood. Some states like Pahang, Trengganu, Johor, Sabah and Sarawak will witness fierce battle and of these, surprise outcome like winning Trengganu, Pahang and even Johor was not impossible. Pakatan dare not predict taking Sabah which is embroiled in the influx of illegal immigrants in the 80s and 90s and legalizing their status to win their allegiance to the Barisan government. This is because Sabah has a large rural vote base that tend not to think beyond basic needs and the future of the state and nation. Yet anything can happen since Pakatan lawmakers have made frequent visits to the interior to bring about greater awareness of their rights and dispel their fear of victimization should they vote again Barisan.

The petty quarrels highlighted between Pakatan coalition members may cost them some votes if these voters view such reports as disunity and unreadiness to take over the federal government. Personally I consider them stupid. Differences should not be dirtied in public who may read the signals differently. But I believe most of the voters have decided. Enough is enough. Change promised after the 12GE debacle failed to come about. In fact the Barisan government ruled badly in the past 5 years to deserve a disqualification from being re-elected into power.

My take is that Pakatan will win the next federal election with 12-15 seats majority and control 8 states, pushing Barisan into the Opposition role for the first time since we became independent in 1957.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Agree with you. Andrew.


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